Leverage (aka debt) is a great tool in rising markets, but can be catastrophic in market meltdowns.

Given the low interest rate environment, businesses, institutions, and individual investors have been borrowing more and more collateralized money via large mortgages, margin, line of credit against stocks/crypto, business loans, etc. If the value of the collateralized investment (homes, businesses, stock, crypto etc.) drop, lenders (banks) can and will make a capital call and force the sell of those pledged assets. …


January 20th, 2021 marks a new day for America and for the world. As I sat at breakfast this morning with my wife Anjou, my 2.5 year old daughter Chloe, and my 10 month old daughter Sophie, we watched history in the making as President Biden and Vice President Harris were sworn in. Knowing that my daughters will grow up in a world in which a female can hold executive office in the US brings a sense of pride and excitement to me as a father and I look forward to watching my daughters’ bright futures unfold.

Inauguration Day January 20th, 2021

As we move…


2020 has been a year that taught everyone countless lessons about perseverance and reflection. As investors enter the holiday season and reflect on their 2020 portfolios and plan for 2021, here are 7 financial words of wisdom that every investor big and small should immediately follow to improve their long-term investment success.

1: Never get sold an annuity or whole life insurance policy. NEVER. I’m not talking about term life insurance to support your family if you are hit by a bus — I’m talking about insurance products disguised as “investments.” Whole life/universal life insurance policies and annuities are all…


“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago” — Warren Buffet

This week, the S&P 500 set an all-time record closing at 3,389.78 as it continued its V-shaped recovery.

At Old Vine Capital, I have seen far too many friends and recently on-boarded clients who went to cash with their investments out of fear in March (despite my Q1 COVID-19 advice.) They have completely missed out on the massive stock recovery over the past 126 days from the bear market that occurred from Feb 19th — March 23rd.


Fellow investment strategists, macro economists, and global human friends, let’s discuss what Americans could really use to weather the economic impact from COVID-19. The recent approval of the $2 trillion stimulus package will have lasting impact on our country, but what about this alternative solution?

What is the best way to truly help our citizens through the COVID-19 induced economic crisis?

Parts of the Coronavirus Stimulus Package are beneficial including the availability of extremely low cost loans for small businesses, unemployment support, and yes we do have to bail out the airline industry. While the individual checks sent to families making less than $200,000 will be helpful, I feel it will be very short-lived.

My solution…


The S&P 500 is teetering on the brink of a Bear Market. What does this mean and where do we go from here?

The Chief Investment Officer of LPL Financial, Burt White, recently wrote “Pick your favorite narrative:

1. Stocks plummet 19% in just 2 weeks on global pandemic & oil collapse

2. Stocks start 2020 by giving back half of the S&P500’s ~30% gains from 2019

3. Stocks are up ~10% since start of 2019

All true as of 3/9/20… Choose the best story for you.”

While different narratives may try to help investors feel better and help them…


Coronavirus Fears Hit Stocks

The S&P 500 dropped 1.77% today and 2.1% over the past 5 days. The selloff was fueled by investor fears of Coronavirus controlling the global stock market rather than fundamentals and earnings driving stock prices.

So, what should you do with your personal portfolio? The answers may surprise you.

Here are 3 things investors should do today:

1: Do Nothing

When investor sentiment and fear drive the markets, corrections are typically short-lived. What fundamentally drives stock prices over the long-term is earnings, not fear/greed. Despite recent strong earning reports being released from a number of mega-cap companies such as Amazon…


Investment objectives and personal values are not mutually exclusive.

How many of you consider what is actually held inside your investment portfolio and family savings? Are the companies in which you invest fundamentally behaving with social responsibility and sustainability at top of mind? Would you prefer to invest more in companies that do the right thing and less in poorly behaved companies? What if the future expected returns were the same?

There is a large-scale reallocation of capital taking place globally right now away from companies that exhibit negative environmental, governance, and social characteristics and towards companies that focus on more sustainable behavior such as conservation/protection of the natural…

Neil Kay

Investor, Traveler, Fundraiser, Dog Whisperer, Husband, Father. Managing Partner of Old Vine Capital, a private investment advisory firm based in San Francisco.

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